All eyes are set on CPI data to be released today at 8:30 am. Stock futures are edging higher in anticipation of data release.
Analysts are expecting upcoming U.S. consumer price report to reveal a slowdown in price increases for March. Shortly after, the focus will shift to the release of minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, which are expected to offer more information on officials' perspectives regarding interest rate trends and the recent turbulence in the banking industry.
As stated in previous daily plan my personal analysis runs countertrend to this belief. Looking back to previous weekly plan I had set resistance at 4200 and support at 4100. All week E-mini was unable to trade this level. But what does this mean?
This means that the High of the Day and Low of the Day serve as significant benchmarks because they represent price levels where no trader was willing to sell above or buy below, respectively. These reference points indicate a lack of market interest at those levels, which can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
The twice failed attempt to break above 4200 personally indicates to me a sign of weakness and unwillingness in market sentiment to participate at these low value trade areas.
Currently as I am writing this E-mini has just gapped 4139 → 4177 now currently 3 points away from my weekly LONG target. Now pulling back to 4169. IF positive CPI data can’t get us above the 4200 that all bulls are anticipating than I can see a great sell off about to take place.
What else is odd?
Bloomberg recently reported that hedge funds have taken significant short positions against the S&P500 market, anticipating a decline in value due to a possible recession and economic slowdown. The current number of short positions is the highest it has been in over ten years, and as of the time of this writing, the funds are still facing some pressure since it takes time for large traders to establish such substantial positions.
The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 7:30 AM, one hour before the cash session opens, is an essential event that could result in significant financial gains or losses for many traders even before the market opens. This underscores the importance of the day and highlights the potential impact of economic data releases on the financial markets. If you have not read my weekly plan and wish to learn more the link to my weekly plan is directly below.
With that being said knowing todays risk level I hope that all of you who follow me have a safe day. Remember to always remain flexible and analyze your subconscious. Are you trading based on fear? Bias? Greed? Revenge? Non of this matters. No trade is better than a losing trade, Don’t focus of PnL focus on your entry. Best of luck out there traders and with that let’s get into intraday LONG and SHORT watchlist levels.
Intraday LONG and SHORT watchlist:
E-mini S&P 500 (/ES): For my LONG position once again i’m seeking continuation. For today my level for continuation higher I want to see E-mini above 4160 before I even consider a long entry as my plan counters the idea of being long. But we remain flexible to the idea that I could be sorely wrong. Now for my LONG level i want to enter at 4166 to target → 4195 just below 4200 resistance. Now looking for a short I can see two possible scenarios, futures has already ran up 30 points from yesterdays close. If the market is really expecting prices to subside than i’m thinking we can have a surplus of bidders that will buy the market up causing a rally to test to highs. Likely encounter a sell off around my long target at 4166-4170 where we then begin to sell off. For this precise scenario i’m looking for a SHORT entry at 4166 to target → 4130 POC then T2 → LVN 4095. For my second scenario SHORT if instead we immediately sell off into open I plan to enter at 4153 to target back down to same target as first SHORT. 4152 → 4130 then → 4095 for final and aggressive target.
Gold Futures (/GC): Gold spiked now trading at 2032. can SHORT HVN 2043 → 2024.9 → T2 2004. LONG thinking if we hold open above 2028 can hold and bounce back up to 2044
Crude Oil Futures (/CL): Now inching its way higher to top of HVN at 82.66. Above 82.69 can LONG to target 83.33 and T2 84.27. For my SHORT 81.60 to target back into POC at 80.45 T2 79.7
TSLA 0.00%↑ : Now at 191.15. For my LONG i’m liking entry at 188.56 → 195. For my SHORT liking 190.24 → 187.17
NVDA 0.00%↑ : Now 274.10 premarket. SHORT 271.8 → 268.6. For my LONG liking 274 → 277.9
AMD 0.00%↑ : Now 95.06 premarket. SHORT 94.5 → 92 . LONG 95.26 → 97.95
INTC 0.00%↑ : Has done nothing. SHORT below 32.03 → 31.2. LONG 32.73 → T1 33.84
GOOGL 0.00%↑ : Like INTC has done nothing can LONG 106.6 → 112. SHORT 106.8 → 105.08
AAPL 0.00%↑ : SHORT 160.5 → 159.5. LONG 162.50 → 164.25
MSFT 0.00%↑ : LONG 285.7 → 287.2, T2 → 289.3. For my SHORT 288.77 → 286.15
META 0.00%↑ : LONG 216.94 → 220 . SHORT 215.80 → 212.56
That concludes today's Intraday levels. Please feel free to leave a comment and let me know your thoughts on the longer format for intraday long and short levels. Additionally, if you found this article helpful, please don't forget to hit the like button. And if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe so that you never miss a post.
-Gatsby
Disclaimer: Please note that the following post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment or trading advice. The views expressed in this post are solely my personal opinions and should not be taken as fact. Trading in stocks, bonds, and futures carries a high level of risk and there is no guarantee of any profit. You may even face the possibility of losing all your invested funds, so extreme caution should be exercised. The authors, representatives, principals, moderators, and members of this newsletter are not registered as securities brokers or investment advisors with the SEC, CFTC, or any other securities regulatory body. It is recommended to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor, broker, or financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you agree to these terms. The screenshots in this post are provided by Ninja Trader, Think or Swim, and/or TradingView and I have no affiliation with these entities.